Technology Must be Transparent

Gone to Wordpress

2010-01-01T11:01:00.001-08:00

My Blog past and present is now operating at SamBeal.com

Money for Nothing and your (bonus) checks for free

2009-12-15T20:17:00.001-08:00

Nouriel Roubini's hue and cry to nationalize the banks last winter proved to be overwrought. With the TARP paybacks by Citi, Wells and BA, that crisis loomed but has now passed. The big banks did not fail. But they have failed to put their balance sheets to work in this economy. Banks borrow money at the discount window for approximately nothing, then charge credit card holders up to 31.99%. They can also buy Treasury Bills for 3.5% and pocket the difference. Does that sound like arbitrage or "dire straits"?

Christmas Goodies

2009-12-08T11:12:00.001-08:00

One of my fondest memories of Christmas is the food my mother prepared in the days leading up to Christmas.

Divinity Southern favorite candy with a texture somewhere between a cookie and fudge. Fudge (also with a Texas pecan on each piece). Chex mix. Long before you could find this prepackaged in the grocery store, my mother would bake Rice, Wheat and Corn Chex with pretzels and peanuts. She would fill up giant jars with snap-lids. We fondly referred to it as "grazings". One food item that was received as a gift, usually from one of my aunt and uncles, was FruitCake from the Collins Street Bakery in Corsicana, Texas. Often the butt of TV jokes, if you haven't tasted this coffee cake, then you should hush up.

Today my wife has a her own set of special reciples. Gingerbread houses & cookies for the grandkids, and tamales for us.

Fat and Hungry?

2009-11-22T08:11:00.001-08:00

49M Americans go hungry while 60M Americans are obese and another 60M overweight. The satiated thin man depicted by Cary Grant, Gary Cooper and Clint Eastwood in the movies, has become a real-world rarity. But what is even more paradoxical is that many of the obese are also part of the hungry. One reason is the low cost of "empty calories": chips and fries, $1 meals at fast food outlets, $1 2-liter sodas at the mini-mart. The poor migrate to foods that are cheap and filling and that increasingly means high calories but poor nutritional value. Convenience is a huge factor. It is easier to spend $20 on pizza dinner than $10 in groceries followed by preparation time in the kitchen, especially with a car full of hungry kids.
Fat and Hungry has made companies like Archer Daniels Midland, McDonalds and Coca-Cola, "Fat and Happy".

Most weight gain is the simple result of calories in > calories out. Pro cyclists weight their food and ride with expensive power meters, but most of us have little idea what the value of either side of that equation is on any given day. People will burn 200 calories riding a bike, then reward themselves with a 1000 calorie meal believing they are ahead.

American's spend $10B on prescription antacid drugs and as much or more on over the counter alternatives. I would bet this drug market has grown faster than the population. I wonder if there is a correlation to weight gain in America?

Fifty years ago when obesity was uncommon, genetic differences were discovered to play a key role in how people absorb and metabolize sugars and fatty acids. Two people could eat the same diet, yet one only would gain more weight. Are genetics behind today's staggering obesity numbers? Gene mutations don't spread through a human population in one or two generations. In two human generations, bacteria can evolve millions of generations. There is recent scientific evidence that human gut bacteria (friendly flora) may have adapted the way sugars and fatty acids are moved from the digestive tract into the human bloodstream. Perhaps this will lead to new fat-forgiving products.

Trying Terrorists is Trying

2009-11-18T13:38:00.000-08:00

First, unlike many on the right, I don't believe Gotham is in need of the Caped Crusader or Batman or Spiderman to maintain security during the trials of the 9/11 conspirators. But what is the upside for New York, America or Obama?

The downside is obvious - wasted tax dollars and more bad press for Obama.

In the Middle East, a trial like this would take about 5 minutes and cost 500 rials/riyals/dinars. In New York city, it will months and cost 100's of millions of dollars - to reach an obvious guilty conclusion. Then the fight over where to imprison them pending execution will begin.

The majority of Americans believe Guantanamo prison should be closed. But no one wants the prisoners transferred to their state - even though the federal government will shower billions of dollars on the lucky prison community to ensure that these super-villans don't escape. Duh Con Air was only a movie.

Nov 22, 1963

2009-11-14T09:55:00.001-08:00

I was on an elementary school playground at noon the day John Fitzgerald Kennedy, "JFK" was shot. When we returned to class there was a school-wide announcement over the PA. The President of the United States was dead and school was closed for the rest of the day. Kids walked home or parents were called. At home Walter Cronkite was on TV. The mood was somber.

I grew up in the Permian Basin, so named for the geological era when a great sea existed in West Texas; a sea whose decaying animal and vegetable matter would over millions of years, create one of the largest oil-fields in the world. During the latter half of the 20th century, America ran on West Texas sweet crude from the Permian Basin. George H.W. Bush moved there in 1951 to start his oil company and later his political career. George Jr. went to elementary school in Midland, though he was in an East coast preparatory school when JFK was shot.

The political climate in West Texas was, and still is strongly right wing. There was no aura of Camelot surrounding the Kennedy's there. But the climate was also fraught with cold war tension. In California the school-kids practice earthquake drills. When I was a kid, we practiced Atomic Bomb drills - how quickly can you crawl under the desk and bury your head in your lap. There were houses in town that had bomb shelters. White Sands Missile Range was about 200 miles to the West. The first atomic bomb in the world exploded there. Sonic booms from the Air Force jets stationed there were not uncommon. In Nevada, the Hydrogen Bomb was tested underground in 1958. One winter for reasons I don't remember, we were warned not to eat or play in the "radioactive snow". Snow was a rarity for West Texas. When it happened schools closed - It was a day for snow-men, snow-ball fights and snow-ice-creme.

A year earlier Kennedy had made Khrushchev blink in the Cuban Missile Crisis. No one really knew what was going on, but we spent a lot of time crawling under our desks in October of 1962. When you take the cold war into account, the sudden loss of the Commander in Chief was a National tragedy that extended to the Permian basin as well. What would happen to America? Were we were vulnerable to Soviet aggression? No one under the age of 70 could even remember the last Presidential assassination.

Another Texan, Lyndon Baines Johnson "LBJ", took the Presidential oath in an airplane that Friday afternoon in November. Over time worries about World War III were replaced with realities of Vietnam. A best friend's older brother came home in a bag. There were 100's more on TV every night.

On Monday November 25 1963, the nation watched the funeral procession for the 35th President of the United States. The image of John John saluting his father's coffin is unforgettable.

The top 5 Twitter genres

2009-11-01T09:34:00.001-08:00

1. Retweeting (so original)
2. I just added myself to wefollow.com (so what)
3. Obamacare will kill granny (so stupid)
4. Buy something from me (so ignored)
5. What I had for lunch (so yesterday)

Surge, Purge and Leave

2009-10-31T08:47:00.001-07:00

The whole country if not the world is debating the course of action Obama should take in the war in Afghanistan - whether to increase troop levels (and by how many) or simply get out.
I suggest a 3rd way: Surge the armed forces, pound the Taliban back into the Afghan dirt, then get the hell out quickly. The war on terror is not about Afghanistan. The war on al Qaeda should be fought with special ops, covert ops, and hard-handed influence on foreign governments. To paraphrase Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, "Somebody in the Pakistan government knows where al Qaeda leadership is hiding". In addition to Pakistan, al Qaeda is known to be in Yemen, Europe, Africa, Southeast Asia and even Denver Colorado.
It is immoral to send American's best to die and be maimed in a country controlled by drug-corrupted tribal groups. There are morally corrupt regions on every continent but Antarctica. America does not have the resources or the obligation to fix all of them.
The Afghan run-off election will not change anything, and waiting for it to announce a decision is politically dumb. Obama should act now to satisfy the GOP, satisfy the military leadership and show some strength in a region that pounces on weakness. But just like Iraq, we have been 'over there' too long.

10 Musicians I have seen and outlived

2009-10-28T07:41:00.001-07:00

1. Chubby Checker - early 60s, Odessa, Texas.
2. Dean Martin - never saw him sing, but I saw him strolling through the OCC in the mid 60's, during their annual golf tournament. Dino died on Christmas day 1995.
3. Jim Morrison - July 9, 1968. The Doors at Memorial Auditorium, Dallas Tx, in 1968.
4. Jimi Hendrix, Aug 3 1968, Moody Coliseum (basketball arena) on the SMU campus, Dallas Tx. One year before Woodstock. He set his guitar on fire, played it behind his back. He was the best.
5. Ike Turner - New Year's Eve 1970, Dallas Convention Center, with Tiny of course.
6. Richard Wright - founding member of Pink Floyd. Saw them live at McFarlin Auditorium (a 1600 seat venue), Dallas Texas. Circa 1970. He died last year of cancer.
7. Stan Getz - saw him at the Mountain Winery concert in Saratoga, CA in the 80s. Died of liver cancer in 1991.
8. Ricky Nelson - saw him at a Willie Nelson picnic at the Texas Motor Speedway, College Station, TX in the 70s. He died in a plane crash on New Year's Eve 1985.
9. David Carradine - yep Kung Fu, Kill Bill. He and then-wife Barbara Seagull Hershey showed up at the same Willie Nelson picnic with a band. They sucked. He choked himself chocking his chicken in 2009.
10. Walter Hyatt - founded Uncle Walt's Band with David Ball and Champ Hood. The best troubadour trio ever to play in Texas or anywhere. Thank goodness I kept their albums. Walt died on Value Jet Flight 592 in 1996.

Performers I wish I had seen live but never will:
Frank Sinatra, Bill Evans, Miles Davis, Stevie Ray Vaughn

It took me 2 weeks to realize I typed Bill Ellis when I meant Bill Evans - that's why it's pseudo-suduko!

5 ways to save home newspaper delivery

2009-10-27T08:11:00.001-07:00

1. Unify distribution
I live in a Townhome complex of fifty units. Every morning the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, San Jose Mercury News and San Francisco Chronicle delivery vehicles drive through the complex. Many of them are only delivering one paper to one unit. What a waste (and a racket since they all seem to drive cars with the same worn out muffler). If the delivery system supported a simple way for one delivery vehicle to pick up and distribute papers from different organizations, they could save a lot.

2. Unify printing
All of these papers have local print facilities, otherwise the NY Times and the Financial Times would come in the mail, like they used to.

3. Ala Carte delivery
Allow me to mix and match the papers I receive. I often buy the Monday NY Times for Media, the Monday Mercury for Silicon Valley business, the Tuesday NY Times for Science. The Wednesday WSJ for Technology. The Saturday Financial Times for Arts & Living. The Sunday Chronicle for the pink section. Over the years, I have had home delivery subscriptions to each of these papers. Today that would cost a few hundred dollars per month, which is absurd.

4. Integrate Content
Last friday the New York Times launched a San Francisco localized version. The WSJ is planning something similar. Integrated content can't be far behind. You can read NY Times science articles in the following Sunday Mercury News - so why doesn't the NYTimes sell that content to the Merc (and other papers) for immediate delivery. Better read than dead I say.

5. It can't be saved. Like telephone landlines, the consumer base is shrinking to a level that simply can't be served. Have you noticed how many self-service news-stands have been abandoned by their carrier? The machines don't have the mechanical quality to correctly count ten quarters. And who walks around a roll of quarters in their pocket? Soon we will all read newspapers online or on e-readers. I am waiting to see the Plastic Logic Que, with a letter sized form factor.

There's an app for that

2009-10-23T14:59:00.001-07:00

In the not too distant future, the web will consist of a very small number of social media platforms (think iPhone, Facebook, Google) and a very large number of app-creating entities (think millions). Who do you think will make most of the money?

What is a digital legacy?

2009-09-11T15:40:00.001-07:00

The blogosphere is full of questions about this. Some define it as saving passwords on the assumption that your demise will be too sudden or painful to allow an opportunity to pass them on. Others say it is everything you have ever typed, txt'd or spoken on a phone.

Passwords could be written down and secured in a safe place. Maybe you have too many passwords? Maybe you change them frequently (I'm not sure it matters much as long as they are strong. If quantum computing moves into the domain of hackers, your password will never be strong enough, or changed often enough to thwart them.

I have a small number of strong, but easy to remember passwords I use for billing accounts and critical email. I also have weak, easy to remember passwords I use for "fluff" accounts. (You know the free ones that only want your eyeballs (and proof that you have eyeballs so they can justify their CPM rates to advertisers.)

There is a growing list of password management tools. OpenID, Roboform, and KeePass to name a few. The concept is simple, a very strong generated-password using facts that only you would know for verification and recovery. If you bank or trade stocks online, you have probably encountered these without realizing it. Maybe your spouse or trustees should know what model your first car was, or the name of your favorite pet, teacher, etc.

I anticipate that this annoying password game will be obsoleted someday. Microsoft/Apple/Google/etc. will use AI, personal knowledge (that they can get from Facebook) and your DNA stored in the RFID in your septum.

A more serious question to consider is "what" you leave behind - digital legacy or digital detritus? Or your private memories, stories and personal messages to those you care about. Randy Pausch's, oft-quoted remark said it best. ... I could put myself in a bottle that would one day wash up on the beach for my children...

Render unto Facebook the things which are Facebook's

2009-08-27T20:44:00.001-07:00

Two countries, a few states, and numerous user groups have filed lawsuits against Facebook over privacy issues. In a nutshell everything you upload to Facebook belongs to Facebook. Everything you do on Facebook belongs to Facebook. And what does Facebook do to make money? They sell information and ads. Information you gladly provide in your profile, and through the "Facebook toys" scattered through out their system for your enjoyment. Information that makes the ads they sell more valuable to the advertisers and hence more lucrative for Facebook.

Facebook has become the de facto AOL of the 21st century. "You've got wall" has replaced the "you've got mail" mantra from the 90's. Of course it's easier and faster. Pictures and video are easy to upload and share with friends. And those virtual toys, what better way to spend a day then collecting and distributing two-dimensional kittens, fish, stars, etc.

And let's not forget those humorous quizzes and multi-player games. According to new research by the ACLU every quiz you take enriches Facebook's database on "you". say what???

To quote Rupert Murdock (CEO News Corp which owns MySpace), "Facebook is just a directory".
It is a great place to keep track of your friends. But is it the right place to store your personal legacy? When you die, your data reverts to the whims of Facebook. You won't be clicking any ads, so your space on their disks becomes dead space so to speak.

PermaSite is a place where your memories belong to you. You determine who views them, and who manages them after you are gone.

Idle Hands are the Devil's Playthings

2009-07-23T08:13:00.001-07:00

If you were a cartoon character, which cartoon character would you be?
If you were a Dunkin donut, which Dunkin donut would you be?
If you were one of the Seven Seas, which Sea would you be?
If you were an disContinued Car, which disContinued Car would you be?
If you were a Failed Financial Firm which Failed Financial Firm would you be?
If all the brain cycles spun on these fantasies could be synchronized, what real problems could be solved?

This isn't an entirely whimsical question. Luis von Ahn, a professor at Carnegie Mellon invented the "captcha" used to separate humans from "bots" on web sites. He realized that the uniquely human ability to "fill in the gaps" could be used to solve real problems, like correcting OCR errors.

On the other hand, a friend recently suggested that Facebook quizzes may serve another purpose - collecting valuable profile information to sell to 3rd parties. After all, that which is rendered to Facebook, belongs to Facebook.

How to win friends and influence people

2009-07-04T09:23:00.001-07:00

July 4, 2009. N. Korea Defies US and Fires Barrage of Missles

In 1986, the world had a problem with terrorists - Abu Nidal backed by Libya and Col Mohamar Kadafy.
When diplomatic approaches failed to quell an escalating series of terrorist attacks, Ronald Reagan took swift and bold action - a bombing raid that took out military targets, terrorist enclaves and killed one of Kadafy's children in the backyard of his palace. Kadafy became a changed man. He postponed indefinitely his promotion to "General", and albeit reluctantly, assisted the US and the UN in the fight against terrorism.

Now it is time for Obama to step up and respond to "Fearless Leader". Launch a missle (like a ground-launched CRUISE that can fly through an open window) into the palace and take out Kim Jong-il's cognac collection and any sons who aren't trying to sneak in to the Michael Jackson memorial service in Los Angeles. Then call him up and tell him his left shoe is untied.

The GOP would take note - even Cheney's AEI would have to applaud while daring Obama to take the fight to Tehran. Russia (who dances a jig when anyone defies the US and the UN) would take note. And China would "owe us one" since they want the little guy to go away but they don't want to look like they're helping us.

Tax Cellphones, Carbon, Cigarettes, Calories

2009-06-17T09:45:00.001-07:00

California has 10M cars on the road. On an given day about a third of them use a cellphone despite laws prohibiting the use of non hands-free cellphones while driving. Why? Duh, it's only a $20 fine. Littering is a $1000 fine in California and many other states. The next time you are on the road, count the number of people driving illegally with a phone glued to their face vs. the number throwing trash out the window. The penalty for littering is 50 times the penalty for a behavior that kills and injures people every day. A $1000 fine would initially bring in hundreds of millions of dollars to state coffers. That money could replace state funding taken away from schools, fire departments and police. But pulling people over is dangerous and time-consuming. Maria Shriver's cellphone vehicle violations are well known because the paparazzi have her on tape. One cop with a camera could generate $1M in fines in a single weekend.

Thomas Friedman, columnist for the NY Times, suggested that gas should be $4.00/gallon forevermore. The price spike in the late 1970s forced Europe and Japan to adapt with efficient mass transit. We didn't, and we were even more unprepared for $140/barrel oil in 2008. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, has called for $10/gallon gas, based on behavioral change at the global level. "No one explicitly pays for the destruction of our atmosphere and the warming of the world's oceans". American burns ~375M gallons of gas every day. Changing that will take time and technology. A carbon tax could fund the technology. Obama's Cap and Trade proposal has become a watered down political mess. California should take the lead will real reform by directly taxing carbon. (And gain relief from Cap and Trade because we get most of our electricity from non-polluting sources.)

California democrats proposed higher cigarette taxes as one way to fix the budget deficit. Cigarette consumption is a behavior that implicitly costs everyone though the burden of health care. Cigarettes kill more American every week than the war in Iraq has - to date. Insurance companies pass the cost of $100,000/year cancer treatment on to their other clients. We subsidize cigarette smoking through our insurance premiums. Heart disease and related complications (diabetes) kills more Americans every day than the war in Iraq. The costs are enormous, and we all pay, one way or another. It is time to tax nutritionally devoid calories - high-sugar drinks and high-fat "value meals".

updated Nov 1, 2009

What is a story?

2009-06-15T15:15:00.001-07:00

To be a person is to have a story to tell. Isak Dinesen

When I was younger, I could remember anything,
whether it was true or not. Mark Twain

Some people think we're made of flesh and blood and bone. Scientists think we're made of atoms. I think we're made of stories. When we die, stories are what people remember, the stories of our lives and the stories we told. Ruth Stotter

Out of the blue and into the black.
Once you're gone, you never come back.
Neil Young, from the album Rust Never Sleeps

Create, Preserve and Share Your Story at Online Legacy

Draft Dodger Disses War Hero

2009-05-14T07:16:00.001-07:00

On Sunday's Face the Nation, Vietnam war draft-dodger Dick disses Colin Powell, a highly decorated war hero, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and architect of the only successful invasion of Iraq. And picks a rich, recovering drug addict, talking-head as the voice of the Republican party. This might be a good time for George W. to preserve a bit of his own legacy and admit that everything that went wrong was Uncle Cheney's idea.

Read more on how Cheney is putting the nails in the GOP coffin in today's Washington Post.

Did eliminating EIT make America weaker? Ineffective reactive approaches do nothing for the root cause - soaring unemployment in Middle East young adults - 25% overall and 50% in Gaza - provides an ideal opportunity for radicals offering change. And besides, Jack Bauer will continue to do whatever he deems justified to keep us safe.

Face the Nation,
24

Adsense makes no cents?

2009-05-05T08:23:00.000-07:00

Adsense (if you don't know) is a Google product that distribute ads paid for by Adwords users across millions of websites. Google charges variable rates to the Adwords user and shares some of the revenue with Adsense distributors, based on the visitor traffic to the site. The operative TLA (three letter acronym) is Cost per thousand unique page views. More page views, more money. Typically these funds accrue in your Google account until a threshold that warrants "cutting a check", i.e. $100. After 1.5 years, my account has reached $7.07. At that rate I'll get a check in 2029. Or never, since I deleted the Adsense garbagio from the sidebar.

I disobeyed a Presidential Order and survived the Swine Flu

2009-04-28T18:10:00.001-07:00

IN 1976, President Gerald Ford ordered a nationwide vaccination program to prevent a swine flu epidemic.

Ford was acting on the advice of medical experts, who believed they were dealing with a virus potentially as deadly as the one that caused the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic. The virus surfaced in February at Fort Dix, New Jersey, where 19-year-old Pvt. David Lewis told his drill instructor that he felt tired and weak, although not sick enough to skip a training hike. Lewis was dead within 24 hours.
The autopsy revealed that Lewis had been killed by "swine flu," an influenza virus originating in pigs. By then several other soldiers had been hospitalized with symptoms. Government doctors became alarmed when they discovered that at least 500 soldiers on the base were infected without becoming ill.

My wife got the vaccination and immediately got sick. I was too busy building a GaAs development lab to get sick "on purpose". Turns out I was right. Within weeks reports started coming in of people developing Guillain-Barré syndrome, a paralyzing nerve disease, right after taking the shot. Within two months, 500 people were affected, and more than 30 died of the nerve disease, but only Private Lewis died from the Swine Flu.

swine flu,pandemic

Tell me what your plans are, and I'll tell how your are going to Fail.

2009-04-26T08:35:00.001-07:00

Who hasn't heard that? Second-guessing is a skill honed in every office place in the world. In politics it is second nature to second guess. Because it so easy to find potential flaws, it is almost human nature to do so. In today's Internet-connected world we are all second guessers. What used to be reserved for the Editorial and Opinion page is now "news" on TV, radio and every blog on the net.

This is good, you say. This makes us think. Well placed criticism does make us think. Feedback is part of any successful planning process. But most of what is labeled critique is actually "throwing stones to draw attention to the stone thrower". If some talking head on CNBC says Timmothy Geittner's plan will fail, he isn't trying to help the Treasury Secretary solve the world's problems. He is trying to sell his own name, his blog, his book, i.e. his "brand". In a few months, when the dust settles on the Financial crisis will errant opinions be called out and graded? Nah. We live in a short-term world. Yesterday's news is buried in a heap of Tweets no one can keep up with. Good stone throwers know that if you keep throwing stones at new targets, old "misses" are soon forgotten.

There is a greater implication. The loss of long-term thinking in a world that only measures short-term results. Our world is increasingly complex but our news is remarkably simplistic - a child murderer in California, toxic assets, a few cases of swine flu. Did you know that 1000 children die every day from contaminated water? Or that more firefighters die from Heart Disease than fire and smoke? The result is a total lack of perspective and context, which creates the ideal environment for throwing stones.

Tell me what your plans are and I'll tell you how I can help - maybe.

Talking Heads,Second Guessing

Facebook Press Releases from the not-so-distant Future

2009-04-24T10:33:00.001-07:00

Facebook changes company name to WWW.
Facebook signed up the last connected human today, reaching the 2B user mark. CEO, Mark Z was quoted as saying "We have the whole wide world right where we want them".

Facebook proves to be Fad
Mass user exodus attributed to Woody Allen affect - "I wouldn't want to be a member of a club that would have me".

Facebook,Woody Allen

What a Tweet Thought.

2009-04-21T03:50:00.001-07:00

From All Things Digital, "University of Wisconsin-Madison biomedical engineering doctoral student Adam Wilson has successfully tested a “brain wave monitor” to the Twitter publishing interface, allowing him to compose a message merely by thinking and publish it to the arguably too-popular microblogging service."

Do you see where this is going? No I don't mean the end of text messaging with fingers.
Go a bit further and imagine all of our thoughts collected, stored and searched by (The Google). Cool, uh?

Google, Tweet Thoughts,Brave New World,Fahrenheit 400,

Resist Twitter?

2009-04-03T07:44:00.001-07:00

Twitter is a lottery with a key difference. The winning ticket was drawn "before" the tickets went on sale. Biz Stone, founder of Twitter, has the winning ticket, but we still feel compelled to buy tickets. We don't want to be "left out", "un-cool" or out of sync with the Obama generation. Everyone talks about Twitter although the old line about "how are they gonna make money" is starting to wane. We all know the answer. After a billion tickets (or Tweets) the winning number will be drawn (sort of) and the winning ticket holder (Biz Stone) will come forward to collect his One Billion Dollars. Yep, that's what this is all about.

Text messaging across the celluar-internet boundary at 140 characters (vs. 160 for SMS), and a clever name. The guys at YouTube got $1.6B for little more than that. Chad and Steve didn't invent "user generated video", they just had a clever name, and a venture backer who happened to be on the board of directors at Google.

Biz Stone is a former Google employee. He made Blogger (the application hosting this blog) a success for Google.

And if you are still wondering why anyone would care if you are eating a bagel or picking your nose, you're right - they don't. Twitter will persist as yet another electronic message conduit - a mechanism to influence while informing you, like Google, Yahoo, CNN, etc., and those who profit from providing the conduit like Verizon and TMobile.
"Psst, there's a bagel crumb stuck to your cheek".

Follow me on Twitter

The Green New Deal

2009-03-16T09:15:00.001-07:00

The Great Depression officially ended with World War II, which resulted in the deaths of 70 million people, the Holocaust, and the Atomic bomb. The current global economic crisis will put more people (in a more crowded world) out of work and destroy more wealth than the events of the 1930s. Revolutions often begin as food riots. Signs of unrest are in the news everyday - small and often politically energized - but anti-social none-the-less. How does the current crisis end? At the April G20 Summit, UN representatives will present a "Green New Deal" agenda. The world has an opportunity to focus stimulus spending on infrastructure and technology for renewable and cleaner energy. Over $2 trillion dollars in global stimulus spending can be classified as either "Green or Clean", and perhaps more stimulus can be focused on this problem.

There are still a few people who think Global Warming is either myth or Mother Nature, and therefore does not warrant mankind's intervention. The International Conference on Climate Change, ICCC held in New York last week, attracted a few hundred attendees. Scientists who are either funded by big oil, or blinded by their data. Apparently big oil has switched agendas - at least with their advertising dollars - to a "responsible energy" mandate. The real question is not whether global warming is man-made, but rather can man-made technology be used to ameliorate what is clearly happening to our world climate-wise. If the pursuit of the answer puts people back to work, and puts the world on a path to less finite-and-dirty-oil dependency, the world will be better off. And it beats the hell out of WWIII.

BTW, useful technology also emerged from WWII: nuclear power generation, radar (which directly led to communications protocols that enable mobile telephony, commercial jet aviation, and rockets (which enable global satellite communications. The technology side effects of the Green New Deal may not be realized for decades.

Google is watching what you watch

2009-03-12T08:16:00.001-07:00

In the news today, Google will use your web surfing and YouTube video selections to create a profile that will allow advertisers to target you for search-based ads. Naysayers, Luddites and worry-warts will cry 'Big Brother' but hey, Big Brother is coming whether you cry or not. And we will welcome him with open arms because stuff we do gets easier and more relevant to our needs. Behavioral targeting is a good thing. And it will move into other aspects of our media consumption. Calero Media Systems develops IP for making advertisements you view on TV, relevant to the media you watch on TV. In other words your personal interests affect what products are pushed on you. If I watch "24" on Fox, or the "The Unit" on CBS, I am probably not a customer for "Depend". And therefore, I neither benefit from nor want to see the commercial. (I also don't want to see commercials for "Flomax", even though I am a 55+ male with a prostate inflating like a circus balloon, I want to get medical information from my doctor, not the Ad Agency that just ran the "Depend" commercial).

On the other hand, if I search for "Depend" (which I had to do to create the link above) then Google now thinks that I "might" be interested in male incontinence. Just because Big Brother is watching, doesn't mean he is paying attention.

Watching what you watch is how you get to watch for free.

Behavioral Targeting,Behavioral Advertising,Google Search,

Werewolves of London

2009-03-03T08:28:00.001-08:00

The CEO of AIG and Ben Bernanke blamed AIG's problems on the "FP division in London" - the group responsible for placing bad bets with credit default swaps. Bets that US taxpayers have made good on to the tune of $160B and counting. Warren Zevon was prescient.

He's the hairy, hairy gent, who ran amok in Kent.
Lately he's been overheard in Mayfair.
You better stay away from him, he'll rip your lungs out Jim.
Huh, I'd like to meet his tailor.

Aaahoo, werewolves of London

Extending the metaphor, is this the modern day Dr. Frankenstein?

Mark C. Brickell is the CEO and a director of Blackbird Holdings, a global trading system for privately negotiated derivatives. Widely regarded as a leader in the derivatives industry, Mr. Brickell joined Blackbird after twenty-five years at J.P. Morgan, where he most recently served as a managing director. During his time at J.P. Morgan, Mr. Brickell helped to build one of the world’s foremost derivatives businesses and supported the growth and advancement of the global derivatives industry while helping to shape a more favorable public policy environment. From 1988 to 1992, Mr. Brickell also served as chairman of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association; he was vice chairman for two years and on the board for more than a decade. He was part of the team that authored the influential 1993 Group of Thirty study, Derivatives: Practices and Principles, and has served on the board of directors of First Command since 2006.

AIG,Credit Default Swaps,derivatives,

Nationalize California

2009-03-01T15:47:00.001-08:00

A going concern becomes insolvent when financial obligations exceed assets. Chapter 11, Title 11 is the preferred alternative to simply folding the tent. When the "concern" is the 8th largest economy in the world, folding the tent is not an option. The California budget resolution recently passed in Sacramento and now up for public approval will not solve California's endemic, systemic problems. We are destined to revisit this crisis again and again.

Nancy Pelosi, chief "pirate" on the high seas of Congress has brought $30B of (stimulus) treasure to her state. This will certainly help, but it won't solve our problems. The Federal government is invoking a virtual Chapter 11 on banks, Big 3 auto makers, and AIG - with bailout money. He who brings the money, makes the new rules. So why not do the same with the State of California. Force us to do what we cannot do: restructure the constitution and eliminate the referendum propositions that confound "government by representation". Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger promised to clean up the "special interest" groups that defy progress but he has failed. Meg Whitman, running for Governor in 2010, has taken up the torch to make California business friendly. But that will never happen as special interests are "ordained and empowered" by numerous Amendments, Propositions, and a perpetual gridlocked assembly.

nationalization,Schwarzenegger,Ebay,

Everything to win and nothing to lose

2009-02-25T09:26:00.001-08:00

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan describes How bank bonuses let us all down in today's Financial Times. Sheer poetry.

The national paradox on Nationalization. The Obama administration doesn't want to destroy the private banking sector because that would be "bad" somehow. And to appease Congress, neither do they want to reward the investors in those banks with government bailout money. So, the market sells off the bank stocks punishing everyone who entrusted their IRAs to the mutual funds who favored the financial sector on past performance. Nationalization becomes a fait accompli. When Obama says that he wants to force banks to loan money, while eliminating the reward system, he might as well be talking to Martians. The Federal Reserve is the only bank in America where the employees get paid simply to do their jobs. And if they do them well, the reward is "not" getting grilled by a Congressional committee.

nationalization,
Black Swan,

Spare the rod, soil the child?

2009-02-19T21:29:00.001-08:00

As in save the bars enclosing California's exploding prison population and condemn our children to the worst educational opportunity in the US. Yep, after the $12B cut in educational spending proposed to fix the California budget crisis, California will likely rank 50th out of 50 states in per child educational spending. (Does anyone have the data for Puerto Rico or Guam?)

A Federal judicial panel recently ruled that California's prison system (nearing 2X capacity) violates the Eight amendment - prohibiting cruel and inhuman punishment - and recommends a 33% reduction of non-violent offenders. Of course "we" plan to appeal this federal order to reduce our budget, and the suffering and recidivism that extreme overcrowding produces.

What a quandary - whether it is better to lock up a "3rd striker" for twenty to life for shoplifting, or layoff our childrens' teachers.

And don't forget the incarcerated geriatrics receiving millions of dollars of drug and medical treatments - while shackled to their wheelchairs. A recent study predicted that elderly or infirm prisoners will consume 33% of the $6B prison budget in the next few years. I sure sleep a lot safer at night knowing they're not on the streets.

The Disintermediation of Education

2009-02-13T10:55:00.001-08:00

Is the K-12 model outdated?

Just as the QWERTY keyboard was designed to prevent hyper-nimble fingers from overwhelming the mechanical key strike mechanism, is the thirteen year K-12 program an artificial restriction on learning?

A case could be made that access to learning resources - materials, books, teachers and classrooms - required a lengthy multi-year program. But in today's connected world, any child with an Internet connection has access to every book ever written. Amazon's vision for Kindle "every book ever printed in any language all available in 60 seconds,"stated goal with the Kindle, is to offer "every book in any language in 60 seconds". Google's stated vision is to catalog all human informaiton. Language translation software will soon allow any document or video, in any language to be understood by any person in his native language.

Did the human brain evolve around a 13 year pre-college curriculum. Of course not. "Caveboys" were were either finding food or avoiding becoming food, long before their 18th birthday. Old Star Trek episodes depict a brain-erased person restoring all knowledge in some time-compressed process taking hours, not years. And there is no reason why that science fiction will not become possible someday.

The primary result of the K-12 and four-year college program is to introduce young people into the work force at approximately voting age. Thus school serves a social development mechanism as much as a learning process. Home schooling may provide insight into that thesis, in that home-schooling removes a social element from a child's development. Exposure to the parental belief system 24/7 is probably not in the child's best interest. Many home-school advocates do so because of strong beliefs rooted in religious or social bias. Exposure to different beliefs and different people during childhood are essential to a healthy involvement in a complex adult world.

There is another side to this issue - cost. The cost of a K-12 program is the largest or 2nd largest budget item in every state in the country. And in many third world and emerging markets, access to K-12 education is limited by resources. This is the primary motive behind programs like OLPC, One Laptop per Child Laptop. The Internet allows those countries to educate more children, while this country could educate children with less money.

When I entered a Southern Methodist University at age 18, there was a student who was only 12 years old. And he graduated before I graduated. He was probably in a hurry to leave an environment where he did not fit in. Participation in dating, drinking, and intra-mural sports was simply impossible for him. But what if half the student body was near puberty? What if the average age to enter the work force were to drop by 20%? Is this a good thing? And is it inevitable either way?

Companies of the Future are Free

2009-02-12T13:51:00.001-08:00

What if business could function like a Hollywood movie production. A company is created with a specific value-creation goal over a finite time-frame. Employees are hired to work either at a specific location, or any "connected" location. Roles, responsibilities and progress are managed online, where contributors and managers have instant access to the rate and direction of progress.

What are the barriers to such a system today? For one, the burdens of forming a company: taxes, employee benefits, laws. Corporate taxes should not exist in the US. They limit business creation and encourage offshore expansion to lower tax-base countries. For example in the semiconductor industry, integrated circuits are designed in the US, but IC wafers are tested, assembled and sold from offshore tax havens like Singapore or Ireland. If there were no corporate taxes in the US many of those jobs would stay here.

The second big barrier is employee benefits, e.g. healthcare. Healthcare should be a social responsibility not an employer responsibility. Your healthcare costs and provider network should not change if you change companies. It should only change if you change the state or country where you live.

So how does America fund social change without corporate taxes? With a new tax system. The Federal Income Tax system is absurd, wasteful and an ineffective tool of economic or social change. The solution is value-added consumption taxes (VAT), paid by every entity that consumes value, at the time of consumption. If your job is to sit at home, living off the grid, growing your own food, then you might only pay taxes on the medical treatments you receive. If you make and spend $200,000 per year, then you are paying taxes, but probably a lot less than a 38% bracket. And you would be paying a similar amount to your $200,000-income neighbors who can deduct items that you may not be able to deduct on today's 1040.

Social and economic change is managed by a non-uniform version of VAT. For instance, this is one way to introduce a carbon tax. A kilowatt of kerosene has a higher VAT than a kilowatt of solar/wind energy. It's that simple. Rather than obtuse 1049A deductions based on last year's expenditures, put the incentive right into the price of the item or service you need to buy today. The government collects taxes in real-time and adjusts VAT taxes in near real-time. They do this on toll-based freeways in Los Angeles, and it works.

With the right changes, companies of the future can freely form to create and export value. Value is taxed to fairly meet the needs of the government.

21, 22, 2**3 ...

2009-02-03T19:08:00.001-08:00

who do we "TERMINATE"?
Humans, Humans, Yeah!

sotto voce Don't be Evil

Fight song for The Terminators of Singularity University.

Is the Freemium model a cop-out?

2009-01-16T20:24:00.001-08:00

If 100% of your non-advertising revenue comes from 5% of your users then what is the incentive for Freemium Internet business models, beyond a claim that your site will really make money someday? Unless your "uniques" are really high, or your audience is very targeted, you aren't getting enough revenue from ads to pay the team (unless maybe you are the team). Freemium is a cop-out. A way of saying "our product really isn't worth paying for", but try it for free and maybe you'll feel compelled to upgrade to our super-duper service someday (or more likely we'll promise our investors you will). Do you know any Bricks and Mortar companies that use this model? Can you imagine what would happen if Prostitution used the Freemium model? You don't have to look further than online Pornography to see that endgame. Free online porn has displaced paid-for models. Last week, the Porn industry "bent over" to ask for Federal Bailout money. Good luck with that - nobone gets bailout money until Congressmen can wax prophetic and produce soundbite fodder. And XXX doesn't play well in November.

I dabbled with Freemium solutions from LinkedIn, Flickr, and others. But the only Freemium model I stick with is the New York Times crossword puzzle subscription. (You can read the online paper for free, but wasting your time on that damn puzzle will set you back $6.95/month). I figure it's cheaper than buying a few papers from the newsstand - and I don't have to hoard quarters.

The next wave of Internet providers must provide value services that people will pay real money for. Creating and marketing for pay services in the nexus of the current Great Repression is a huge challenge. But not failing to market services that are worth paying for will condemn most Internet companies to failure or dilution.

The BRICs are falling like bricks

2008-12-27T09:15:00.001-08:00

Brazil, Russia, India and China, aka the BRIC emerging markets, are victims of the the world wide recession. Does anyone know of a country that is immune to the current credit and consumer confidence crisis? Even Dubai has seen a massive drop-off in real estate.

The US is deploying massive fiscal and monetary injections of dollars into the economy. The rest of the world is doing the same, leading to a "war-time financing in the absence of war", to quote Niall Ferguson.

But this war needs a name. The worst recession since "fill in the blank" is running out of blanks. No one wants to hear or use the "D" word, depression, as in "the Great Depression". In fact the words Great and Depression are enjoined forever now in our lexicon. The pundits say that term doesn't apply to the current crisis because unemployment will never reach 25%. But the sheer number of people out of work in American (and the rest of world) may indeed surpass the numbers in the early 1930's. Eighty years ago, agriculture dominated our economy. Farmers couldn't sell their crops, but they could eat them. The soup lines were in the cities. Today, we all live "in the city". In a somewhat whimsical forecast article published in the Financial Times today, Niall Ferguson coins the term "The Great Repression". Works for me.

In WWII, the world suffered, the US suffered, but the US emerged stronger. And led the world's recovery right up to the current crisis. The same thing will prove true in this war. Forecasts that our time has come, that our models are broken, are plain phooey. The world is exchanging "their" surplus dollars for "our" 0% yield T-bills - thank you very much. Oil-rich countries that over-leveraged $100/barrel oil (Venezuela, Iran and to a degree Russia) are devastated by $40/barrel oil. Deflation prone Japan, which recently saw their worst monthly drop in GDP ever, will lose their #2 position in the world's economy forever. China will learn a bit of humility perhaps. America and China will emerge stronger after The Great Repression.

Maybe this time we've learned out lesson??

2008-12-01T10:42:00.001-08:00

A good strategic question raised by Tony Jackson in the Financial Times commenting on a Morgan Stanley forecast - "The present downturn is neither the Great Depression nor Japan because (in essence) all previous mistakes have been avoided this time." Tony is correct to observe that this assumes that all possible mistakes were contained in those two economic episodes and none of today's policy actions will later turn into new mistakes. (Japan once famous for poor quality imports, then highest quality DRAM memories, and ultimately all manner of cool consumer electronics is now famous for a never-really-ending deflationary stagnation).

As for the Great Depression, all we have are history lessons. No one alive today was old enough in 1929-1932 to understand what was happening. Paul Volker, Obama's new Recession advisor, was in diapers in 1929. Recently I tried reading the Financial Times to my 3 year-old granddaughter, but I don't think a single word sank in. A lot of help she'll be when the "Economic Disaster of 2090" occurs.

A world economy of $80T with 4B consumers, and 1B investors, all connected to online information and complex trading systems. But with different goals, strategies, political, emotional and cultural bias. In other words (to paraphrase Black Swan theory), knowledge of past events cannot perfectly prevent tomorrow's surprises. That's why they're called surprises. At least the smartest people are (gathering) in the room.

Grim Christmas?

2008-11-20T09:00:00.001-08:00

Jay Leno, channeling Rodney Dangerfield, said "times are so bad, Santa is down to one HO". Is it shaping up to be a grim Christmas season or is it a time to be thankful?

If Christmas means buying or receiving gobs of new gadgets and designer clothes, jewelry, etc., then you are certainly in the wrong year.

The Happiness Equation is "what you have" divided by "what you want". Most of us have little control over things like credit default swaps and toxic mortgage assets. But they impact our job security, the equity in our homes, and our investments. And the impact sucks for most of us.

When the numerator of the Happiness Equation is sinking like a rock, you need to reduce the denominator to stay happy. Cutting back on spending is the first reaction, although cutting back on spending is a large part of the problem - there is over-reaction in the market and it leads to a vicious downward spiral.

You can also reassess "what you have" - like your health, your family, your friends - in other words, your blessings. Christmas is a season to rejoice in those things, not just the material. Except for the very unfortunate, groceries are relatively inexpensive, and Christmas is a time for cooking those special recipes.

Christmas is also coincident with the winter solstice. Pagans (North of the Equator) celebrated the shortest day of the year because the next day could only be longer. Whether you rejoice or not this Christmas has little to do with whether the end of the world is at hand. And one of these days, the next day can only be better.

PS If you need to put a face on the grinch, Dick Fuld has my vote.

Black and White

2008-11-11T09:54:00.001-08:00

November 10, 2008. A Black President-elect Barack Obama visits the White House. This is historic for all Americans in different ways.
I attended a "Black and White" high school - Odessa Permian - the school of Friday Night Lights (of Book, movie and TV-show fame. The book was accurate enough to piss off a few of the locals in Odessa. The movie has been the called the greatest sports movie ever made. The TV show looks (to me) like "The OC" comes to West Texas.
But, the only "Black and White" at PHS were the school colors, not the student body. Odessa, Texas through the 1960s was as segregated as a black line on a white piece of paper. People of "color" lived South of the RR tracks. The "white" high schools were North of the RR tracks.
In 1954 school desegregation became the law of the land after the Supreme Court's decision in Brown v. Board of Education. But little changed until 1969, when a federal judge ordered a North Carolina school district to use busing to speed integration. This led to a reaction to preserve Federal funding in school districts across the country. In Odessa the reaction was to put one black teen on a bus every day to Permian High School. The John Birch ideology in Odessa, TX didn't like it, but the students at PHS didn't seem to mind. By 1980 the (unwritten) RR track law was history. People of color moved North. Their kids went to all of the Odessa schools. Some of the them were star players, as the movie based on a real 1988 PHS team, depicted.
By the way, when the book was released in 1990, Odessa was in a steep economic depression. All of the $30/barrel oil wells were dry. And the Permian Panthers descended from a thirty year winning tradition to a streak of losing seasons. In 2007 oil prices surpassed the cost of advanced drilling techniques, and the Permian Basin boom was back. There is no recession in Odessa, Texas today: zero unemployment and zero homes for sale. People buying RVs just for temporary housing. And the Permian Panthers. are playoff bound for the second year in a row. President-elect Obama is actually Black and White and perhaps the smartest leader the country has elected in 50 years.

Leave a Ripple

2008-11-04T16:03:00.001-08:00

A legacy is a gift to the future often formed in words and pictures. A legacy is not an obituary (a contrite factual tribute usually written by a stranger for a newspaper). If there is a story in an obituary, it ends badly. So, rather than dwell on that story, create your own ripple for future generations with a legacy story.
Perhaps you are concerned or doubtful that anyone would be interested in your life or your stories. A good way to frame your mind, is to imagine that a favorite friend, child or perhaps an unborn grandchild will be the recipient of your story. It’s a good bet that their life will be touched by your gift.
A good story has a few key elements: character (or characters), intent (goals, desires, expectations), a catharsis (a significant event or conflict that changes the characters and the reader) and details (or the denouement to use a fancy word). There are many categories that could apply:

* Your first day at school – did a parent or grandparent take you?
* Your best friend growing up. Your best friend today.
* Your first date, your first love, your first child ..
* A significant academic, athletic or professional event ..
* A loss – your first funeral service, something more recent..

In fact there are probably too many categories. Let your mind linger on a few and a good story is certain to emerge. Your goal is not to document everything that ever happened to you – that could take a lifetime to write and another lifetime to read. No, the goal is to convey something special about your life in a story. And at the end of this effort, you may discover the true reward of creating a legacy story - a better understanding of your own life.

Online Legacy is developing technology to assist you in this process. You could can read books on the subject, then force yourself to put aside the distractions of the day, someday. Or you can spend a few minutes at Online Legacy to start a process to create and preserve your ripple across time. Follow the link to learn about Online Legacy.

Predictions

2008-10-24T20:47:00.001-07:00

Fears of the worst recession in anyone under 80 years of age's memory may be erased by a flood of money unleashed by the world's governments, sovereign wealth and private bottom-feeding funds. Unfortunately it may sit in vaults for six months while the world grinds to a halt.

But when it starts to recover what will the US have to exchange to pay for a National debt approaching 100% of GDP?

Financial services, nope not any more.

Healthcare - too expensive and falling behind the rest of the world's. Joe the plumber can't afford to float this $1.5T segment of our GDP anymore. Biotech - increasing competition in Europe, India and China
Green & alternative energy - maybe, but the recession may push the priorities for "tomorrow's" solutions down again. Nanotech, software, computing and Internet technology. - Yep, but

We also need to spend on infrastructure - estimates of $1.5T on roads, bridges, trains, power grid and that doesn't count education. No-child-left-behind has lowered the HS graduation rates below those of a generation ago. Throw in the long term costs of the Cheney-Bush wars, medicare, social security and the outlook is grim.

The long term view is that the world may be moving closer to real cooperation on global problems, and the US of A exports solutions better than any civilization to date.

The Death of Karl Rove mud-slinging

2008-10-19T16:52:00.000-07:00

Colin Powell's endorsement of Obama for President should be a wake up call for the right. Is the Republican party "narrowing" to use Mr Powell's term - or is the Karl Rove style of "forget that man's good deeds, focus on the d**k he s**ked" political tactics finally run it's course.

McCain's 2000 campaign was sunk by a shameless Rove tactic in the primary vs. Bush. And now the same tactics are backfiring for McCain vs. Obama. To borrow a phrase, McCain hated Bush when the country loved Bush and he loves Bush when the country hates Bush.

McCain should be dissecting tax strategy not trying to make people worry about whether Obama sat on the same sofa as Ayers. At this point it is unlikely that Palin will ever spend a night at the "Admiral House" as VP of the USA. But she will most certainly return to TV as the host of her show - an Alaska version of "The Great White North" perhaps?

Sarah Palin has a daughter name Juneau?

2008-09-03T09:22:00.001-07:00

That's a Jay Leno joke - and a good one if you pay attention to Oscar winning movies. John McCain's selection of of Sarah Palin as running mate for VP was a strategic roll-the-dice move. The 2008 election is no longer a simple black vs. white, old vs. young, red state vs. blue state issue. Both candidates represent change, both candidates can cross traditional party lines. A McCain victory in 2008 puts Palin in the pole position for first woman president of the USA in 2012. She is the "un-Hillary" - I bet that if she caught her husband having sex with a 21 year-old he would end up as Kodiak bear-bait. I am not impressed by the mantra that she has "been the leader of a metropolitan village". But it doesn't bother me that she has "gnoshed on pork-barrel funds" in a campaign where the other three guys are Senators. As for experience, how versed in foreign affairs was Ronald Reagan?. Arnold the Governator's Austrian birth is perhaps the only reason he won't run in 2012. And Argentina has Christina Fernandez, who inherited the position from her late husband. Frankly, I would rather have any of the four Presidential/Vice Presidential candidates in the White House over what we have had there for the last eight years. McCain should have won the Rep party nomination in 2000 - he just didn't play dirty enough. At the very least, this will be an interesting election season, a boon to Media advertising, and if McCain & Palin win, a Moose in every pot.

The Future of Video & Movies on Demand

2008-08-08T09:45:00.001-07:00

The recent court ruling in favor of Cablevision allows cable providers to offer on-demand programming to non-DVR subscribers, by remotely storing subscriber selections at head-in locations. Many DVR subscribers already have access to on-demand servers from Comcast and others. This week, my satellite TV provider began offering on-demand to their HD/DVR subscribers. The HD/DVR set-top boxes have the required Internet connection - in fact I am downloading TV shows over my "Comcast" cable modem to my DirecTV sat box. The major of American TV viewers will use these approaches - why buy another box to put under the TV?

The next tier of VOD/MOD users will be Netflix customers. Netflix has the brand, the content (20% of their DVD inventory and growing), and a multi-price point hardware solutions for viewing VOD/MOD on your television set - where it belongs. You can choose a Web-to-TV component with general Internet Access, the $99 Roku Netflix-streaming-only box or the LG Blu-Ray DVD/Netflix streaming solution (price to be announced but expect $400).

Next is AppleTV with a loyal set of iTunes enthusiasts. Vudu - a proprietary solution with "snappy" search made possible through extensive caching and peer to peer networks with other Vudu boxes - will need serious black magic to stay viable against this competition.

New cable/phone solutions will fall Somewhere in-between. Turner Cable has a web-to-TV solution forthcoming. Verizon & AT&T will fiber variants. And Sezmi with 4G will each lock up segments of the market.

Internet-only solutions viewed primarily on computer displays will persist although many of the players will end up as acquisition fodder (e.g. BitTorrent and Jaman) or disappear entirely (e.g. MovieBeam, CinemaNow, etc.) or merge with general purpose content providers (e.g. Veoh, Joost).

Online vs. On-TV Advertising

2008-07-11T08:01:00.001-07:00

ZenithOptimedia's June 2008 Forecast for the world adspend shows television advertising dominant but flat, maintaining a 37% share of the ~$600B market in 2010. Internet advertising grows from 10% to 13%, mostly at the expense of slight declines in Newspapers, Magazines and Radio.

Today, Internet advertising is dominating by "search", which is dominating by Google. The battle for online video advertising is just beginning. The WSJ reported on July 9, 2008 that Google's YouTube only generates revenue from 4% of the content with a total revenue of $200M. Plans to re-architect the business are underway.

Video advertising will take several formats: pre/mid/post roll runs of varying lengths, embedded product placement, sidebar display ads, etc.

What happens when the distinction between online and TV blurs. When, for example, I'm watching "web content" on my big screen TV using a Web-to-TV device connected to my ISP. I'm watching branded messages in a lean-back setting with my friends and family. Do I care whether the content comes in as MPEG2 from the Satellite receiver or as Flash/Silverlight/H.264 through my cable modem? I don't think so.

The question branded advertisers should be asking is not "how to move my ad content from TV to online" but "how but to exploit online technology to blur the distinction between Online and TV.

Dumb or Dumber?

2008-06-30T08:28:00.001-07:00

Chris Anderson asks, in the July 2008 edition of Wired magazine. if the emergence of the Petabyte era - the ability to amass and analyze massive amounts of data - obsoletes scientific theory. A computer cloud and programs like Google's MapReduce, can brute force analyze raw real world data to uncover trends that once required scientific models and limited testing to unravel.

Nicolas Carr asks in the July/Aug 2008 Atlantic magazine if "Google is making us stupid" - by simplifying an individuals need to think. The ability to focus and engage the brain in cognitive activties, like reading an in-depth article, have been replaced with scanning "wiki facts" on a computer screen or iphone. The imminent death of journalism threatening newspapers and magazines like the Atlantic is one validation point.

Scientists no longer need to think. Individuals no longer need to think. What will we think of next?

World Wide Will

2008-06-26T08:17:00.001-07:00

The food, energy and environmental problems facing the world are extra-national in scope. In many countries, the impact is a "perfect storm" of rising cost food and energy imports with catastrophic weather damaging domestic agriculture. Human suffering begets social and political upheaval.
These problems are global and complex. Dealing with them requires a new level of global cooperation. The United Nations is a 20th century concept. The true world-wide-web of the 21st century is a global decision making, and action-taking entity led by the major world markets in N. America, S. America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Africa.

CUDA Shouda Woulda

2008-05-22T15:01:00.001-07:00

Nvidia is known as the leading graphic chip (GPU) company. Their chips are in high performance PCs and video game cards. The complexity of a GPU surpassed the Intel Pentium processor several years ago. Today's Intel chips have two cores soon going to four. Nvidia GeForce8 GPUs have 128 stream processor cores running at clock rates exceeding 1GHZ. Nvidia has recently created an open programming environment to allow 3rd party development for new applications. This platform, named CUDA, for Compute Unified Device Architecture, is available for free from the Nvidia website accompanied by with numerous application notes and benchmarks.

CUDA solutions will soon move into the SuperComputer domain like approaches based on IBM Cell, Intel Pentium and AMD Operon. IBM expects to regain the spot of the Top 500 when they attain PetaFlop performance on LinPack benchmarks in the next few days. (One peta equals a quadrillion, or one million billion). According to EE Times, May 12, 2008, the IBM solution is based on 12,000 Processors and consumes 4MegaWatts.

Stanford has a program for configuring a compute cloud from individual PS3s (like the SETI program). These solutions offer a potentially higher parallelism (think of 1 million Sony PS3 crunching the same problem), but inter-node communication is limited to DSL/Cable Modem bandwidths. The IBM supercomputer bandwidth is ~1 billion times higher.

The next milestone after Peta is Exa, one billion billion floating point calculations per second. That threshold could be reach in four years. It would be like everybody on the planet using a Pentium CoreDuo computer to crunch the same problem. How about World Peace for a start?

Aunt Theo

2008-05-20T07:56:00.001-07:00

My Great Aunt Theo passed away in her sleep last week at age 101. She moved to Key West during WWII and lived in a little home on Love Lane for 55 years. My wife and I visited her in the spring of 2000 and found her busy working on her tax return. She was "sharp as a tack" at 93 and had a clear goal to reach 100. She was a single woman her entire life, twice losing a fiance to illness. For the last four years, she rode a custom-built recumbent bike around the neighborhood, including the day before her death. Cycling is in my genes.

My Mama is for Obama

2008-05-19T07:25:00.001-07:00

My mother voted Republican for 52 years. Dewey, Ike, Ike, Nixon, Goldwater, Nixon, Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Reagan, G.H.W. Bush, G.H.W. Bush, and Dole. In 2000, she abstained from Bush Jr's election. My mother is a multi-generation Texan, while the Bush's are blue-bloods from Connecticut. G.H.W Bush was a successful Texas oilman, and that counts for a lot in the Permian Basin of West Texas. But junior (or as the late Molly Ivins nicknamed him, Shrub) "failed or was bailed" out of every oil deal he touched. In fact, Shrub's first buy low - sell high business success was a part ownership in the Texas Rangers baseball team. His second such success was winning the Governorship of Texas, after which he immediately began his long march to Washington - against the wishes of his father. Turns out that older brother Jeb was supposed to inherit that mantle. But Jeb was down in Florida working so hard to turn around the state budget and economy that he let his little bro' stake out the party high ground.

After watching Bush steal the election from Gore (ironically with help from Jeb) my mother turned Democrat in 2004 to vote for Kerry. Now she looks forward to a country led by a man who actually understands and respects the U.S. Constitution. A man who won't start and never-end a war for a short-term blip in his polls. A man who actually knows what "The Google" does to make money. That man is Barack OBama.

Global Good, Bad and Ugly

2008-05-18T15:56:00.001-07:00

The Good
Energy Technology. Guess what? There may be a lot of oil left in N. America that is cost effective to extract at $125 barrel. Real break-thoughs in alternative energy are yet to come.

Food Technology. Ethanol sucks - It sucks do-gooders into believing they're making a difference; It sucks wheat and grain fields into more corn that won't be eaten which sucks food right out of people's mouths, and more of your paycheck out of your pocket. Genetic engineering can produce more food and turn inedible plant life into energy-rich ethanol fodder. Time for the food-Luddites to take a pass.

Meteorology. Today's kids might grow up to solve global warming (or cooling) with engineering solutions on a global scale.

Biotechnology. If only the FDA would get out of the way of progress.

Internet Technology. As the virtual world gets smaller, reason and human rights tend to rise.

The Bad
Overpopulation - the rain forests are being converted to coal so poor people can get eat for another week. The seas are over-fished and the coastlines of many countries are polluted with fish farms. People produce people faster than Mother Earth can feed them. There are simply too many people on the planet. Population control must be a human priority or Mother Nature will sort it out the hard way. As George Carlin once joked - "We don't need to save the Earth. Mother isn't going anywhere. It's people that are going away.

Global warming. Buying a smaller plastic water bottle isn't going to do shit to slow down global warming. Short-term we need weather, and socio-economic predictions so we can being to adapt to inevitable changes.

Petroleum. Someday it will be as costly as Extra Virgin Olive oil. The transition will suck, but the world will be better off after the addiction is over.

Health. Cancer is essentially undefeated 35 years after Nixon started a war on it. Drug resistant pathogens kill more young Americans than the war in Iraq. Animal-to-human crossover virus's like H5N1, didn't go away, continue to kill people in Southeast Asia, and continue to threaten global pandemics.

God, or rather human interpretation of what God wants. Does God dislike birth control so he'll have more souls in Heaven? Does Allah really want Islamic Jihad to kill all the infidels? And what about the the 1400 year-old religious battle between the Shia and Sunni?. Francis Crick, the Nobel prize winning biologist who discovered DNA, once remarked that 10,000 years from now humans will look back on all religion as a joke. I doubt we can wait that long.

The ugly.
Asteroids, cataclysmic volcanoes, earthquakes. Who said there were any guarantees?

web-to-tv 3.0

2008-05-14T12:46:00.001-07:00

WebTV, founded in 1995 and later acquired by Microsoft, was the first attempt at bringing web media to the television. As described in PC World "getting the Web to display on a typical TV in 1995 was like watching an elephant tap-dance--you were amazed not that it could do it well but that it could do it at all. With the WebTV, Web pages looked horsey, some media formats didn't work at all, and using the remote control to hop from link to link was excruciating."

Today's Web-To-TV solutions are more robust though limitations in control persist. Do people want to stream the PC to their TV - or do you just want to turn on the TV and easily search, select and share web media with your family and friends? How do you type in a URL with a one button remote? Which hardware solution / media restriction do you want to live with? Is YouTube really worth watching on your 54" 1080p display?

A byline in the Financial Times today offered an interesting definition - Web 2.0 is a world dominated by user-generated content, while Web 3.0 will be a world where professional content dominates. The Web-To-TV evolution is poised to make the same transition - from today's YouTube cats-on-a-treadmill to professional actors, lights, camera and action - all on your big screen TV in full HD. Now where did I put I put the remote?

Play Hard

2008-05-07T08:24:00.001-07:00

It is one of life's ironies that when you are little, you wish to grow up, but when you are old, you often wish to be a child again. In Diane Ackerman's book, Deep Play, she discusses the pursuit of "positive brainwashing" to purge oneself of “cynicism, preconceptions - the technical and cultural biases we build over a lifetime” - in effect, to return to innocence through intense detachment.

RAAM is the ultimate opportunity for Deep Play.

what you get is what you see

2008-05-06T23:14:00.000-07:00

Here's a simple rule of thumb for watching web media: If the content was created with a cellphone or laptop camera quality camera, then it is best viewed on a cellphone or laptop display. If the content is produced in a studio with HD camera & sound capture, then it is best viewed on an HDTV with multi-channel sound.
To date 99% of the media available on the web is produced by the viewers, i.e. user generated video. But how do want to view web media produced by professional actors in studios?
Vote and see how the crowd votes

The last unexplored country in semiconductor land

2008-05-02T19:03:00.001-07:00

I have been involved with semiconductors for 35 years. In college I fabricated solar cells and laser diodes on one inch wafers. I started my career at Texas Instruments during the conversion from three inch MOS wafers to four inches. Minimum feature size was 5um (or 5000 nanometers). The 16K DRAM was struggling to reach cost effective yield and the 64K would prove to be an opportunity for TI to bury a hundred million dollars in the West Texas sand, before moving the entire project to Japan.
Today the train known as Moore's Law, has dropped most of it's cars. After Intel, TI, TSMC, & UMC there aren't many fabs that can afford to travel down the line to 45nm, 32nm or 22nm. There really is a point where quantum effects say "Stop, Backup, Find some other way to compute". Molecular/genetic solutions may provide the next "quantum" leap in compute power but you need to be majoring in biochemistry if you want that career path. In the meantime, architecture may be the last not-fully-explored territory left in this business.

Someday every TV will be online

2008-05-01T19:45:00.001-07:00

In 15 years, broadcast television will only be useful for high-profile live events like the Super Bowl, awards shows and programs like “American Idol, Ben Silverman, co-chairman of NBC Entertainment, said during a keynote interview at the TelevisionWeek Upfront Summit in New York.

I think he's too pessimistic. Web-to-TV will happen in 10 years, and American Idol certainly won't last that long (one can only pray). The web will subsume regular TV broadcasting for 95% of what people watch. Of course the "pipes" must get bigger - and they will; the consumer electronic industry must integrate internet access and embedded browser-player functionality into television sets - and they will; and users will need new techniques for finding content in an infinite span of long-tail channels - and they will.

Pay me or Play me?

2008-04-28T21:09:00.001-07:00

How do companies make a connection with people who need their products in the web-to-tv age?

TV commercials are broadcast to everyone. Right now, there is a hamburger commercial playing on my TV, but I haven't eaten a hamburger in thirty years. The broadcaster doesn't know that - and they're wasting they're money to pay for my eyeballs, whether I DVR-skip it or mentally skip it.

The TV viewing experience can be compelling if the product matches your needs. At some level TV is absorbed subconsciously better than repetitive dancing stick figures on a Flash banner ad.

Internet video does offer behavioral targeting with cookies or user-defined preferences that feed advertising delivery options.

How about TV embedded advertising that is tailored to the viewer. Cable can deliver neighborhood localized advertising, but having neighbors that love hamburgers won't change my dietary bias. Web-to-TV has the potential to match the highest impact ads with the right potential customer.

Place-shifting and web-to-tv

2008-04-23T16:37:00.001-07:00

Location free TV, and the Slingbox by SlingMedia are place-shifting technologies. They allow you to watch "your TV" from a PC/smartphone through the internet - from anywhere in the world. And InFunGo> has a software solution that connects your mobile devices to your home media server, from anywhere in the world.

What does "your TV" mean when TV moves to the web. Similar to Google Web Apps, "your Excel" is available wherever you and a working browser happen to be. Ditto your pictures on Flickr or your home movies on YouTube. Place-shifting becomes meaningless when the media is on a server for anyone to access if authorized.

Broadcast TV excels at quality (production, acting, and predictability).
Live means live regardless of how many people are watching. But you pay for it with longer and longer ads. And there is a growing trend to "free" actors (who can't act). The barriers for production and distribution keep dropping. Web TV will excel at variety - any topic at any time. Instead of 50M people watching one show, 50M people watch 50M shows. Many believe there is a collective desire to watch a show everyone else is watching. Everyone can talk about the same show the next day at the water cooler at work or the social network equivalent. Web-to-TV threatens to change that.

Is there utility in combining web media with broadcast media? The networks want their audience to switch back and forth between broadcast TV and companion web content - during a commercial, or after the show is over. (They do this to supplement ad revenue lost to DVR ad-skipping - a $30B loss by some estimates.)

Ultimately web content and broadcast content could be combined on the same widescreen. Early examples of this exist today. Mainstream solutions will require new ways to control and lean-forward content with lean-back content.

Footprints, Footsteps

2008-04-20T06:53:00.001-07:00

The news today is full of stories and examples of carbon footprints. How much carbon dioxide does an action create? I read it may be cheaper (by carbon) to drive your car to the store than walk. Walking will burn calories that you will replace with carbon footprints whose sum will exceed the quantity released by the burning of the gas your trip consumed. Probably untrue but a bit humorous.
Carbon footprint is a fad - an early 21st century fad. The measure that will worry the world this century is water footprint. Unlike CO2 which is released by mother nature in levels that make your trip to the store inconsequential by 8 orders of magnitude, water is a finite resource. Global warming will change water distribution in ways we don't understand and in ways that will be difficult to react to. Los Angeles can't move 1000 miles to the south, but the water could.

The Age of Web-To-TV

2008-04-19T14:24:00.001-07:00

YouTube launched the age of user-generated-content. They didn't invent it, but they made it mainstream. With cell phones, laptop cameras and cool new gadgets like the Flip-Ultra, you can vlog easier than blog. Everyone wants to source UGC, but would you watch someone else's UGC on your HDTV?

CBS broadcast every NCAA March Madness game on their website. This is Web-To-TV. Hulu has organized years of Fox and NBC content for free viewing. Web-To-TV is not restricted to repurposed broadcast TV content. Technology has lowered the barriers to entry. A $1000 HD video camera, a MAC running Final Cut Pro, and a few aspiring actors can create TV quality content. The lure of advertising dollars has create a surfeit of aggregation outlets begging to distribute content. The only dilemma for the viewer is how to scroll thru a million virtual channels with a hand-held remote control.

Do people want to watch internet media on their HDTV?

2008-04-16T11:20:00.001-07:00

I posed this question to the world on Ask500
This is an interesting site that uses the "wisdom of the crowd" approach. Similar to an exit poll, standard statistical tests (e.g. Chi square) can identify a non-random result with strikingly few samples. Think "Obama in a landslide, before the sun sets in California".

In my question, the respondents are net-savvy by definition. They probably watch internet media on their computer screen. So far the results look like a landside. Click the link and make your choice.

User Generated TV

2008-04-15T10:24:00.001-07:00

I am sure there are a lot of people who watch Saturday Night Live "live" (if you count tape-delayed for the West Coast as live), but most of us tape the show for viewing another day, with one hand on the ad-skip button. Out of several ha-ha funny skits, and one or two totally dumb skits, one or two will be off-the-chart funny. The lip-sync musical hiatus is interesting for about ten seconds. And the endless food and car ads would put anyone still awake at 12:35AM fast asleep.

The "Best of SNL" has been a favorite TV Special for years. The compilations change as the SNL crew evolves. What if you could create your own SNL mash-up? You can. Online media producer Hulu.com offers individual skits from SNL and other NBC and FOX programs. Combine those with the best gems from ex-SNL star Will Farrell's FunnyorDie.com and you have something completely new.

Video mash-ups become "User Generated TV" when XML playlists can be easily shared and played on the family TV.

Playlist in my Pocket

2008-04-15T07:15:00.001-07:00

Is there anything your phone can't do for you? It can tell you where you are, where you want to be and how to get there, amuse you on your way to get there, tell you where your friends are and what they're twittering their life away with, encourage you to buy something, and make the money transfer without reaching for your wallet. All of these features exist in some phase of roll-out on some hardware in some markets in the world today.

When you get home and turn on the widescreen TV, shouldn't your viewing desires also come from your phone? It knows what you like, it knows what your friends like, and what they think you like. The channel changer is the rotary dial handset of the 21st century.

Hollow Men?

2008-04-15T07:07:00.001-07:00

"Google is like a gigantic parasite that hollows-out existing (media) businesses," says Jason Pontin, editor and chief and publisher of Technology Review. For example, newspapers distribute ads through-out the paper. These ads pay the bills for the reporters and columnists to cover a broad range of topics that are read, skimmed, or skipped as people flip-thru the pages. Online newspapers get read by the home page headlines. Only things that drive pageviews get funded by ads. Any page more than a few clicks in, might as well not be written because it won't be read. The ads that support that page won't be scored and the paper might as well fire everyone but the headline writer and the guys who mash-up news from other blogs in the world. And they are, at newspapers and all other forms of printed information. The result is the disappearance of diversity, the disappearance of critique, and the disappearance of depth. Only the very wide and very thin survive. Only a paper that reads more like every other paper than any other paper survive.

At the same time, if Obama blurts out something in Smallville, USA, it's published on a video blog almost instantly. The (hollow) news has become more transparent (but only if you are famous).

Sound more like everyone else than anyone else sounds like everyone else

2008-04-11T15:24:00.001-07:00

Lee Siegal, argues in Against The Machine, that the measure of internet viral success is pageviews. And a high pageview often means "sounding more like everyone else than anyone else is souding like everyone else".

"Mentos in a Coke" with a twist. Mascara and androgynous tears for Britney. A motivational speaker mimics thirty years of dance moves. Forget the Oscars, we have the YouTube Video awards. One implication is that knowledge is devolving into information. And web information has a half-life of about one day. In a week you're off the page. Information is devolving into spiky noise. Perhaps Francis Fukuyama's The End of History was prescient in ways he didn't anticipate?

The Three Phases of RAAM

2008-04-06T12:58:00.001-07:00

June 7 & 8, is the start of the 26th Race Across America - a non-stop bicycle race from Oceanside, CA to Annapolis Md., covering 3000 miles and 100,000 vertical feet of climbing. It's no picnic but parts of it are fun. The race can be described in three distinct phases: Euphoria, Pain, and Focus.
Euphoria lasts about three days, when the pent up strength from months of training is unleashed. You can marvel at the scenic beauty of western America without having to worry about food, water, where your next nap will occur. A RAAM rider has a full complement of crew to take care of every detail. You might ride all day without hitting a single traffic light!
The second phase starts when your body reacts to riding more miles in three days than you've ridden in the last month. Everything hurts, everything is swollen. The difference between permanent and temporary damage is hard to distinguish, but you start poppin' Advil's like Jelly Beans, and ride through it.
Two orthogonal things happen in the last phase: your legs begin to grow like Popeye-on-Spinach, but your brain is fried. The scenery become numbingly repetitious (to you). You have the strength to ride, but all you want to do is sleep. The veterans wait for this phase - where huge gains or losses can occur. As eight time veteran Danny Chew put it, "the real race starts at the Mississippi".
To finish you must focus on getting to the next time station, the next bump in the road, or simply getting to ten pedal revolutions so you start counting to ten again. Repeat until your crew says stop and you are a RAAM finisher.

CND & P2P - Can't we all just get along?

2008-04-03T21:06:00.001-07:00

The worlds of content delivery networks (CDN) and peer 2 peer (P2P) seems to be at odds. At first glance they serve different markets. CDNs are essentially to deliver a webcast to a large number of simultaneous users, e.g. Oprah's weekly sessions attract 1M homes. P2P originated with music sharing site Napster. At that time it was about access to a large library of music, not bandwidth. But in today's video laden world, bandwidth is the key issue. Video-on-demand services like BitTorrent (founded by the inventor of P2P for video) relies on public P2P to accelerate movie downloads. Private box video on demand provider Vudu relies on their installed base of boxes to accelerate movie downloads - the more users they have the better the average user experience.
All P2P providers appear to gain from no having to make CDN payments. But that gain ignores the cost of the "pipes" they are using. As long as the "pipes" are free and their users are freely offering their upload bandwidth this works. But is it the optimum arrangement for the web? A good technical reference is A Practical Guide to Content Delivery Networks. I'm reading some technical articles on hybrid architecture proposals.

Bit Torrent

Back to Kindergarten

2008-04-02T15:40:00.001-07:00

I spent a morning tutoring five and six year olds at my grandson's charter school. It was a hoot. I plan to make it a regular experience.

Rational Economics

2008-04-02T15:39:00.001-07:00

Are people rational or irrational when making economic choices. People are rational, individuals are frequently not. Though ration is in the eye of the rationalizer. People make decisions on their perceived values and costs of the alternatives. Perceptions are easily fooled, especially when facts are too complex to evaluate. I just read The Logic of Life, by Tim Hartford. He exposes some non-obivous but rational decisions groups of people make. The threat of higher cigarette taxes causes more smokers to quit than higher cost - society would be better off with repeating small tax increases than one large increase every several years. On the other hand, the availability of over the counter anti-smoking drugs has led to an increase in new smokers - teens figure they'll have the tools to quit when they're ready to.

Global Warming - Reactive Recycling vs. Proactive Adaptation

2008-03-31T20:22:00.001-07:00

So California is banning incandescent light bulbs. They are inefficient light sources and expensive, so it's a good thing. But what impact will this have on global warming? If all the bulbs in California were replaced with CFLs would that offset the amount of CO2 expended by coal mine fires in SE Asia & China? All the "feel good" hoopla amounts to less than 1% of the impact of a growing coal & oil world wide economy. Add don't forget the Tata Nanocars in India.

If reducing carbon footprints is a pointless do-gooder spin, then what should we be doing?

How about engineering the adaptation of inevitable warmer climates in two major categories: prediction and amelioration. Over the next fifty years any attempt to reduce global warming through CO2 reductions will not reduce the actual increase already underway, only the ultimate rate of increase. But we have time to mitigate the impact.

Over the next 100 to 200 years, there may be engineering solutions on a global scale that could ameliorate the cause - a global thermostat in essence - to regulate global temperatures. How about self-replicating/repairing nano-structures in fixed orbits. Block enough solar energy at the equator to lower temperatures by 1 or 2 degrees C. Equatorial sunglasses!

By the way, if the Yellowstone Caldera explodes (it's about 50,000 years overdue) the ash and sulfuric acid will global lower temperatures to sub-freezing for several years. Global warming will cease to be a worry since Mankind and animal kind will go the way of the dinosaurs.

Global Warming

Will online ads play on the family TV?

2008-03-28T07:32:00.001-07:00

Perhaps the first question should be is their a family TV. There may be a TV in every room of the house, but the family may be equally dispersed to every room in the house. That is a trend, but I would guess in homes across American there are multiple family members in one room of the house watching TV.
And the $200B TV advertising marketing devotes a lot of attention to them.

The 30 second ad in spurts of 4 to 8 every few minutes in a typical TV show. If you own a DVR you press pause and go back to your laptop computer or your reading material or leave the room for a few minutes, then return to fast forward to the resumption of the program.

I have a 30-second jump button. I prefer it simple FF because it is more precise at taking you to the resumption point. Maybe the networks are achieving subliminal impact on me and others who see the commercials at the equivalent of 500 frames/sec?

Survey data for online video says that people are tolerant of 15 second pre-roll ads. But what happens when 12 of them run consecutively? Some videos are introducing mid-roll ads. Are we headed to same ad distribution of broadcast television advertising?

Perhaps, but the internet is interactive. The opportunity exists to create an advertising environment that builds brand success and does not get ignored by the next virtual-DVR.

family tv

Proportions out of proportion

2008-03-26T07:19:00.001-07:00

The war in Iraq has taken the life of 4000 American soldiers in 5 years. Car accidents have taken the lives of 200,000 Americans over the same time frame. The number of children lost in that number surely exceeds 4,000 - but you never hear about it. Are car accidents an act of God, while War is an act of Bush?
Children fare worse with cancer. I don't know and I don't even want to know that statistic but I'm sure it surpasses 4000 every year, maybe every every month. A typical cancer drug will take 10 years and $100M to develop and process through the FDA trials. Then more years pass while FDA ponders if someone will get "called on the carpet" for approving a drug too early.
Ditto for drugs to fight drug resistant bacteria. XDR-TB and MSRA are ticking time bombs.
Oh, and under current funding, Pentagon spends $100M on the war in Iraq every six hours.

To Swerve and Protect

2008-03-11T14:37:00.001-07:00

A beautiful Sunday turned tragic for three innocent cyclists by an out-of-control car. Were the cyclists riding three abreast or doing other "crazy stuff" as Leslie Griffy, writer for the San Jose Mercury News implied online Sunday? That we know to be untrue. Was deputy James Council asleep at the wheel, as he was overheard to say by several witnesses? Was he hung over from partying all night? We may never know since there is still no indication that a breathalyzer test was administered. We do know that he had two previous drunk driving arrests in Los Angeles (though he was not and will never be an LA County Sheriff's deputy).

We also know that he did not administer CPR to any of the victims as Sgt. Don Morrissey proudly told the media Sunday - all of whom regurgitated it to the general public that night. Kristy Gough's riding partner tried to render aid while she lay dying from a severed limb and massive head injuries, while the deputy in question wandered around muttering that his "life was over".

I was almost there Sunday. I rode up Stevens Canyon road a little after 10am, but decided to turn left at McClellan - something I rarely do - instead of riding up the canyon. I took the back way to Saratoga and up Big Basin way. Immediately after turning right on Pierce Rd., I was passed by a sheriff deputy in a white SUV going about 45mph up the hill on the wrong side of the road. No lights. No siren. I wondered at the time where in the hell he was going at that speed, and I was glad I was not descending Pierce Rd. in the other direction. Twenty minutes later I reached the roadblock and found out why the SUV was in such a hurry. They needed to do damage control and get deputy Council away from scene before he blurted any more self-incriminating statements.

As I rode up the canyon today, the slower speeds of the quarry trucks were noticeable. They typically roar down the road at 40+ mph. Today they were going 20MPH and making wide passes around cyclists. I'm sure they don't want to be ticket fodder for the obvious presence of the sheriff's department. I counted four deputies within two miles of the scene today. Stevens Canyon might be the safest place to ride this week.

3 feet, not 33.

2008-03-11T11:14:00.001-07:00

One of my pet cycling with cars peeves is how people pass a cyclist on the road.

Let's start with the assumption that the bicyclist is on the side near the edge of the road. Let's further assume that a white line-marked shoulder exists and no part of the cyclist or his bike extends outside the white stripe.

A car approaches in a lane that is typically 18 feet wide - approximately 8 wider than the car. If the car manages to drive "straight down the middle" leaving an equal distance between the yellow stripe and the white strip, the car will "miss" the cyclist by 4 feet. That's plenty for me, but some riders would prefer a little more.

The car usually prefers a lot more. A typical reaction is to edge over toward the yellow line. Putting the left tires on the yellow will provide up to 8 feet of clearance between the auto and the cyclist. This is the safest approach for all. It's in the California Driving Handbook. But here's the rub. Most cars prefer to put the right tires to the left of the yellow line. That leaves 18 feet or more of clearance - great you say. You probably do it yourself. But how much space are you leaving for the cyclist coming from the "other direction". ZERO or less than ZERO. And they compound the ensuing head-on collision by accelerating as if they were passing a semi-truck on I5.

It gets worse if the road has a double yellow stripe - for no passing. Now you are leaving no room for the oncoming car. If a car is right around the bend, someone (probably the cyclist) is going to get killed.

I see this at least once an hour on Bay Area roads. I have been the "bike coming from the other direction" twice where the car is not only in my lane, his tires are off the road on my side of the road. I almost rode off a cliff the last time it happened on Page Mill Road. I NEVER go down Page Mill Road on a weekend.

Someone in the California Assembly tried to pass a law requiring 3 feet of clearance when passing a bike. Who (TF) is going to measure that? Negative numbers are easy to measure - in blood and mayhem. Almost as useless as the "no talking on the cellphone while driving" law. The chance of getting a ticket for talking on the cellphone while driving in the bike lane are lower than your chances of winning the lottery. Only laws that put offenders in jail for YEARS for injuring or killing another human being with their car are the answer.

bits, packets and cars

2008-03-11T10:46:00.001-07:00

I live in the Silicon Valley, the birthplace of microprocessors and internet routers. The interconnect complexity of an Intel processor has been equated to a street level map of the US. Information, in the form of electronic charge, is managed and moved around this "mega city" at speeds of 20 million miles / hour.

Internet packets are routed around the world primarily on Cisco routers. The latest products can switch 256Gbps - more than all the cars on the planet moving thru one intersection every second.

So riddle me this. Why are the traffic lights in Silicon Valley so "19th century"? How many times have you been sitting at a red light along with 50 others cars from three directions while NO cars are moving with the Green light. You sit and wait until an unlucky car proceeds toward the green tripping it to red.

You can not proceed until someone else has to stop. The traffic lights are designed to maximize stopping - not traffic flow.

The engineers at Intel or Cisco could improve traffic flow in the valley by 15% to 30% by simply making one car wait an extra five seconds so twenty cars don't sit for 90 seconds. What do you think the savings in gas mileage would be? What would the savings in pollution be? The answers are obscene. The savings would far offset the cost of extra sensors 500 feet up the road from the intersections.

But maybe traffic engineers aren't so dumb. Maybe the money at Unocal or Chevron determines the optimization strategy, i.e. maximize gas consumption not traffic flow.

The future of TV, Advertising and 21st century consumption

2008-03-11T10:26:00.001-07:00

Tivo/DVR killed the embedded ad.

Lots of advertisers, Lots of content providers vying for the eyeballs. Pre-roll, Post-roll, pay-per-ad-viewing. Get paid to watch Ads (pay less for content with ads).
Place ads where "you" think they will be watched and get a cut from the ad creator.

Clearing houses match Ads with Publishers. Engagement matters more than impressions.
Clicks don't matter when you're leaning back watching big screen TV. How will web ads be watched on widescreen TV - because people will watch web media on widescreen TV.
And not just Movies on Demand - but videos and mashup channels and made for the web media of all types.

If I see the Ad and I think my social net should see the ad as well I take some action. I vote for the ad - thumbs up/thumbs down - like a StumbleUpon website, or I share the Ad on Facebook, Hi5, Myspace, MySocialClique, etc. I get paid, the media carrying the ad gets paid. The Ad creator gets rewarded by creation of customer awareness. Videos are rated by the quality of the embedded Ads, including product placement.

Consumers exist to consume. In the 21st century what we consume is intangible media. The hardware is free approximately. Mediators add value when they can measure consumption of intangible assets. Facilitators add value when they can reduce friction in the chain of consumption - find it, watch it and how.

Even MicroHoo's Get the (Vista) Blues

2008-03-11T10:25:00.001-07:00

Last year I bought a MacBook - the best personal computer I have ever owned (and I started with one of the early IBM PC clones, from by Texas Instruments - dual floppy, no HD). The Mac runs programs I was familiar with (with VMWare) and allowed me to quickly learn new applications. My productivity jumped while my friends productivity went backwards with Vista. The following article from the New York Times, March 9, 2008 speaks volumes.

Here’s one story of a Vista upgrade early last year that did not go well. Jon, let’s call him, (bear with me — I’ll reveal his full identity later) upgrades two XP machines to Vista. Then he discovers that his printer, regular scanner and film scanner lack Vista drivers. He has to stick with XP on one machine just so he can continue to use the peripherals.

Did Jon simply have bad luck? Apparently not. When another person, Steven, hears about Jon’s woes, he says drivers are missing in every category — “this is the same across the whole ecosystem.”

Then there’s Mike, who buys a laptop that has a reassuring “Windows Vista Capable” logo affixed. He thinks that he will be able to run Vista in all of its glory, as well as favorite Microsoft programs like Movie Maker. His report: “I personally got burned.” His new laptop — logo or no logo — lacks the necessary graphics chip and can run neither his favorite video-editing software nor anything but a hobbled version of Vista. “I now have a $2,100 e-mail machine,” he says.

It turns out that Mike is clearly not a naïf. He’s Mike Nash, a Microsoft vice president who oversees Windows product management. And Jon, who is dismayed to learn that the drivers he needs don’t exist? That’s Jon A. Shirley, a Microsoft board member and former president and chief operating officer. And Steven, who reports that missing drivers are anything but exceptional, is in a good position to know: he’s Steven Sinofsky, the company’s senior vice president responsible for Windows.

Their remarks come from a stream of internal communications at Microsoft in February 2007, after Vista had been released as a supposedly finished product and customers were paying full retail price. Between the nonexistent drivers and PCs mislabeled as being ready for Vista when they really were not, Vista instantly acquired a reputation at birth: Does Not Play Well With Others. Randall Stross, 2008.

The Lottery

2008-02-10T16:46:00.001-08:00

The Lottery, a short story by Shirley Jackson, published in 1948 tells the story of a village that annually condemns one citizen, chosen by random ballot, to a death by stoning. The purpose of which is not religious, like Aztecs with virgins, but rather to focus everyone's problems into a single scapegoat. A scapegoat impugned perhaps with the virtual guilt of all of the villagers.

Almost every week, CNN or some other network, chooses a "victim" that represents all of the troubles and sorrows of the world. Americans focus all of the concern, their watercooler & coffee shop chat, their calls to radio talkshows, etc., on this one person with their special problem.

Many American's believe this problem really is the biggest problem in the country at the time: A boy trapped in a well; A brain-dead woman on life support; A drunk driving celebrity "parasite"; suddenly become the most important issue of the day.

Maybe we should stone Britney.

Almost Impossible - Fixed Gear 508

2008-02-06T13:19:00.001-08:00

Prelude. Since my finish in 2004, every fixed-gear starter has finished. In 2007, Terry Lentz finished 3rd overall with a truly amazing time of 30 hours and 13 minutes - that is a big gear!

First posted on www.the508.com October 2004.

In the phrase “almost impossible”, the key word is “almost”. When I first saw the 508 course as a crew in 1998, I thought it was almost impossible unless you had a motorcycle. But a year later I finished my first 508 and also qualified for RAAM – something that truly seemed almost impossible. And three years later I successfully finished RAAM. Last fall, when I first heard about Chris Kostman’s crazy plan to have a fixed-gear category at The 508, I thought it was almost insane. But then I started to think about it. This essay is a brief summary of how I approached it and how I made almost a positive term.
Some goals are simply too hard to predict – you just have to go to the edge and find out what happens – but even Columbus had a plan. I have been riding a fixed-gear every winter since my first 508. It’s good for your legs and a nice change of pace. At first I found it difficult to ride anything but pure flat roads. I also tried single-speed riding - one gear with a freewheel – but I missed the sensation of pedaling full circles. The biggest problem I had with the “fixie” was forgetting it doesn’t coast. Inevitably I would come out of the saddle to “hop” the bike over a pothole or crack, and momentum would almost vault me over the handlebars.

My first decision in preparing for a Fixed 508, was to ride nothing but fixed gear miles for the nine months prior to The 508. I entered a couple of double centuries and the Davis 24hr ride. I experimented with different gear ratios. I showed up at the Spring Death Valley double century with a 42:15 and ended up using that gear the rest of my training. At the Eastern Sierra double century, the descent from Sagehen Summit was fast, bumpy and long. I learned that I could do the climbs, and the bumpy descents. After that I became convinced that a successful Fixed 508 was not only possible, it was achievable within my previous 508 finishing times). Bottom line – have a plan and a goal.

My last two 508 finishes were PRs – personal records. So this became my goal for 2004 – beat a younger Seal! Over the summer, I followed the workout pattern that John Hughes developed for me in 2000 – intervals, tempo rides and long distance pacing. I rarely went over 75 miles and rode the same roads I usually ride preparing for an event. Fixed gear riding teaches you to accelerate by spinning, rather than down-shifting. By jumping from 100rpm to 130rpm for a few seconds on a fixie you can catch almost anyone’s wheel. This is fun, a useful skill, and it will make your legs stronger. Bottom line – fixies are fun to ride and you can kick butt on gradual climbs.

The 508 course is fixed-gear friendly, except of course, for Townes Pass. I picked a gear ratio that would be fast on the 3% grades that dominate the course but almost impossible to ride on the double digit sections of Townes – thus I would walk them. You can walk 15 to 18 minutes per mile uphill, which means you will lose about 30 minutes to a typical rider pedaling up Townes Pass. And even less if you ride the bike every time the road tilts down (or the cross-winds switch to tail-winds).

With the tailwinds on Saturday, I had several 30 to 35mph descents on the way to Townes Pass. That equates to 135 to 160 RPM with my gear ratio. That sounds almost impossible but your legs are not turning the pedals on a descent – the pedals are turning your legs. It’s a weird sensation. You relax and watch your knees bob up and down like a camshaft, and feather the brakes when you think the “engine” may explode.

Thanks to those tailwinds, I made the turn on 190E to Death Valley in time to see the sunset on Townes Pass. That was a first for me and it was cool. But when I started going uphill, the crosswinds stopped me dead in my pedals. At first I had this sinking feeling that I could not continue, then I remembered walking. DuraAce cleats are easy to walk on; your hands are free to grab food and fluid bottles; the music is clearer; and the change in muscle usage feels good. I walked two thirds of the climb. A high point on my little hike was being greeted by Race Officials Rick Amoeba Anderson and Mike Whale Wilson. I rode the last few hundred feet to the top and kept going. The pavement on the long descent into Death Valley is so smooth you can easily control your speed. The worst part was envy when a “coastie” went by at 55mph. Bottom line – you can deal with Townes Pass.

Pushing wind is similar to climbing. On the death march from Furnace Creek to Ashford Mills, I pushed more wind than I ever had, including the Death Valley Double of 1996 and the Oklahoma Panhandle in RAAM 2002. The wind’s howl over the mineral flats at Badwater was truly eerie. I made a game of it by chasing team riders. Again the advantage of the fixie is maintaining speed on long gradual climbs – or long flat headwinds.

But long gradual climbs with 30mph headwinds proved to be too much for the gear ratio I was stuck with. By the start of the Kel-Baker climb I was struggling. Also, my Achilles tendons, hands and butt were so sore that I couldn’t descend faster than 25mph. When the Boar passed me on the backside of Kel-Baker, spinning 30mph, I just couldn’t respond. Bottom line – pad your bars and your seat.

I set a PR on the Granite climb, and I kept within 5 minutes of the Boar’s van, but lost sight of him on the long descent on Indian Valley Road. After the turn to Amboy, I was just “riding to finish”. Climbing Sheephole pass at night was a new experience, but still endless and busy with cars speeding by. (This is the one road on the 508 course that should be preserved in its “insanely sick” condition, just to keep it special). In Wonder Valley, I discovered that once again, someone had moved Utah Road further to the west. And the last bump on 29 Palms Highway felt like a mountain with 40mph desert winds in my face. The lights at the finish line; the cheering; the photographs with your crew; and the medal is an experience that makes all the hours worthwhile. Bottom line – don’t quit unless something is really broken.

All three fixed-gear riders: Boar, Seal and Parrot, finished the toughest 508 in anyone’s memory. I believe that if the conditions had been better, the Boar would have made the turn onto Utah Rd before sunset, and I might have seen him do it. Bottom line – fixed gear 508 is possible. I encourage all coasties to try it.

PS. Don’t forget that making the 508 possible on any bike requires at least 3 C’s: Conditioning, Commitment and Crew. I also rely on a fourth C – my wife Connie. Along with Lorne Sachs and Dennis Horton, they made my fourth and most memorable Furnace Creek 508 possible and successful.

508 words on the Furnace Creek 508

2008-02-04T14:08:00.001-08:00

posted to www.the508.com in October 2007.

My most memorable 508 was my first experience with it in 1998.

I came here to crew for the “Griffin” along with the future “Hummingbird”. We were double-century riders who didn't have a clue about this ride. We studied the race magazine on the drive down, with essays by people with names like “Penguin”, “Flamingo” and “Whale”. At the banquet I found out that the "Bike Van", Lee Mitchell, was also the “Maggot”. The “Beaver” made a speech about retiring, although he came back a few years later to double up the 508.

The three of us had never ridden through the night, and by Badwater Mike and I were dozing off in the van. We passed the “Algae” asleep in his van at Ashford Mills. The sun came up on Salsberry, and around noon on Sunday, somewhere near the Kelso dunes, Kevin had had enough. Mike & I were too tired to argue. We drove the course to the finish, and sorta consoled Kevin with the assumption that this was some kind of crazy RAAM rider event - not meant for double-century riders.

We passed the “Devil Ray” near the top of Kel-Baker - I remember how determined she looked. Driving thru 29 Palms we saw the stoker from the Austrian "Wolf" tandem riding a solo bike with a case of beer under one arm.

We hit the sack well before dark. I woke up at 4am and decided to see if anything was happening at the finish line. The lobby faced the finish then, and there were several folks there hanging out, drinking coffee. I met the “Abalone” - a double century rider and rookie RQ finisher, who had been up all night cheering finishers. I met the “Whale” and some other folks. I saw the hallucinating “Nanosaurus” & his “Amoeba” crew chief. And in the last hour the “Swan” and the “Polecat” rolled in. The Polecat had to be peeled off his bike but he was smiling.

I got the bug. I read all the essays on the508.com, talked to other totems and came back as a rookie wih a rookie crew.

On the way to 5 finishes I've had lots of great crew. My wife Connie did 4 of them. And the “Kangaroo Rat,” “Hummingbird,” “Griffin,” and the “Boar” finished their first 508 after crewing for me - which proves that luck can be contagious. In five 508's, I think Reed Finfrock and Peter Pop have beaten me about 10 times.

I've mentioned a few totems, but if I tried to mention all the riders and crew who have become friends, sources of inspiration, advisors, or bend-over-backwards supporters, it would take too long and I would still forget several. I will mention one more who not only inspires but facilitates with this excellent venue - the “Whippoorwill.” I've always liked the AdventureCorps motto "We're Out There" because it s a double or triple entendre. Chris is “out there” encouraging individuals, engineering success for the entire event, but he's also willing to risk failure, which is a rare combination.

Two (e)state solution?

2008-02-03T11:20:00.001-08:00

Can Palestine exist as a single soverign entity when the land is non-continuguous. The state of Michigan has a chunk called Upper Michigan that is separated by Lake Michigan (but connected by a bridge over the Mackinaw Straits). The West Bank and the Gaza are separated by Israeli land, Israeli walls, and Isareli soldiers. How can there be a two state solution when there are three separate states in the mix? I don't think it will ever work.

One solution is for Egypt to subsume the Gaza strip. The flow of goods and people across the border during the recent 11 day open border is evidence there is synergy in a region that was once controlled by Egypt. Egypt has the muscle to put down the extremists. Palestenians who wish to live in New Palestine (the former West Bank) can move there and Israel must evacuate and withdraw settlements to accommodate this.

If Paestine yields something significant (Gaza), Israel must yield something significant (illegal settlements in the West Bank). Only when there are two physical states and their be two soveriegn states.
And only then will there be (a chance) for peace.

Starbucks Demystified

2008-01-30T11:53:00.001-08:00

Java Joe Starbuck is no longer a wall street favorite. Maybe having a store on every corner in America wasn't such a good idea.

Why has Starbucks been so successful? I didn't read the book, but I have a simple explanation. What is the 2nd worst thing that can happen to a woman wearing a new dress to an evening affair?

Answer: Seeing another woman wearing the same dress. The only thing worse than that is if the other woman is wearing the dress one size smaller.

The Starbuck's marketing mystique - the language and ordering options of vente, grande, caramel, chocolate, soy, no fat, no whip, extra shavings, steamed, macchiato, extra hot, etc. - serves one purpose: To allow customers (i.e. women) to order a drink that no other customer in the line is likely to order. No woman ever said "I'll have what she had" to the Starbuck's barista , unless she also wears pantsuits to evening affairs.

If don't believe me, spend a few minutes in Starbucks and watch the women ordering drinks. You won't have to wait long because women make up about 80% of the Starbucks clientel. Men have begun to figure out that this coffee "Jones" is more like a $5 milkshake Jones.

What a decade?

2008-01-28T22:00:00.001-08:00

It's 2010 and America has just completed the first decade in the new millenium. For the last ten years, America's booming economy has invested hundreds of billions of dollars into the infrastructure for moving people, goods, electricity and internet packets. In addition, an entire generation has been educated on a 21st century version of the GI Bill.

The accumulated budget surplus has reduced the total Federal deficit by ~1 Trillion dollars. Americans now enjoy lower taxes, the security of low cost health care, and a sustainable retirement system that will endure for generations. The world showers the US with foreign investment. And the US is leading investments in fundamental technologies to improve world health and reduce the adverse impact of global warming.

Speaking at the United Nations, President Obama announced a "coalition of the welling" with funding from OPEC and other foreign entities to develop alternative energy solutions to replace world dependence on oil by 2030. Mars will have to wait.

Whoops, I was just dreaming that Bush did not steal the 2000 election and put America on a path to drain the treasury, suspend infrastructure, and sacrifice our children's future, on a fumbled effort at nation building.

Will my Grandkid's Grandkids work for robots?

2008-01-26T08:57:00.001-08:00

My wife has a Roomba vacuum cleaner. It does a good job cleaning the carpet without assistance, and it doesn't need many brain cycles to do that job. But consider Moore's law compounded across multiple generations. Fifty years is 10**9, a factor of one billion. One hundred years is one billion x one billion. How many brain cycles will a Roomba have when my grandkids have grandkids? Will it clean the whole house, or will it own the house and it's occupants?

According Ray Kurtzweil and others, history points out that Moore's Law is simply a lower bound. Silicon efficiency is just one factor in the advancement of technology. Improvements in architecture, software, chemistry, biology, nano-construction, etc., all contribute acceleration factors to progress. "Punctuated Equilibrium", articulated by Stephen J. Gould, as a model for evolution of life species can also apply to technology. At some point in time, breakthroughs in multiple disciplines combine to throw a few more zeros on 10**18.

My grandkids will likely have iRoomba devices that are smarter than I am. They will use these devices for tasks I can't imagine though I am sure they will be indispensable. But as Beyond AI, J. Hall Storrs asks in "Beyond AI", at what point do "humans" become the "plants" - objects to be nurtured, and perhaps enjoyed by the machines.

AI is coming. Google is likely in the lead with their zillion-Pentium server farms and parallel processing algorithms. The world wide web becomes the world wide computer. Cloud computing resources like Amazon's EC2 will soon be available to virtually anyone. (Though few will really control it.)

The world wide social computer with millions of humans sharing perception and knowledge with millions of computers: a symbiosis for unpredictable futures.

Kurtzweil's "Singularity" not-withstanding, what do machines do for fun in 10,000 years? Do they climb into space ships and roam the galaxy for eons to find other "plants" to harvest? If that is inevitable, why haven't machines from other worlds visited Earth yet? Maybe machines lack the genetic blueprint for exploration, or the "dread of boredom"? Perhaps, like my Roomba, they get stuck in a corner and simply stop.

Did Santa remember the batteries?

2007-12-29T09:00:00.001-08:00

Did Santa bring you another box for your entertainment center -
Something that promises to display web media directly on your HDTV?

Of course "the box" doesn't require batteries, but it may require a subscription fee, or it may only allow to watch pay for view movies or pay for view channels. What if you want to watch Olympic coverage for the Italian team, broadcast in Italian? What if you want all those nifty channels in Joost or the Indie movies on Jaman - are they included?

On the other hand, your remote control does require batteries AND if you want to view something that isn't on their list, you have to enter http://www.whatwasilookingforagain.com
O-N-E C-H-A-R-A-C-T-E-R
at a time.

How lame, and yet a solution does exist. If you can find it on your laptop, you can find it on your TV with a W2TV enabled computer.

Fixed-gear Ciocc

2007-03-31T07:37:00.000-07:00

I ride a new steel Ciocc roadbike configured as a fixed-gear.
Dedaccia steel with carbon fork, Campi record levers, DuraAce crankset and brakes. The hub is a White Industries "eccentric eno" that allows perfect chain tensioning with vertical dropouts. The gear ratio is 42:15. A relatively high gear number allows me "spin up" to almost anyone on flats and slight uphills. On a 2 to 3% grade I am 10% faster than on my full geared Trek. On 7% grades, I stand the entire climb, which equates to 250 one-legged squats per mile. At 12% you're walking.
The bike weights 18lbs and it is so quiet, you can sneak up on a cat.

I want YouTube on My Tube

2007-03-24T22:26:00.000-07:00

Every day I read about a new video site on the web.
But when will these videos stream to my widescreen digital television?